Analysts say China may seek changes in US policy towards Taiwan if it were to pressure Iran reopen Hormuz.
When President Donald Trump meets with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, a new item will be added to the long list of issues of mutual interest and potential disagreement between the United States and China: the war in Iran.
US officials have suggested that China should play a greater role in pushing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts say Beijing will require concessions from the US, likely over Taiwan, if it were to aid in resolving the crisis.
And Iran is unlikely to be at the top of the agenda in the Trump-Xi meeting.
“The Iran issue is not really the central issue for either party in this summit,” said Christopher Heurlin, an associate professor of government and Asian studies at Bowdoin College.
Heurlin said that, although the meeting was delayed earlier this year due to the war, Taiwan will remain China’s top issue, while Trump will likely push Beijing to buy more US soya beans.
China is a major importer of Iranian and Middle East oil, so its economy could come under strain from the disruption caused by Tehran’s Hormuz blockade and the US naval siege on Iran.
Still, Heurlin said Beijing has been reluctant to get involved in the crisis.
“In terms of Iran, the Chinese have sort of been positioning themselves as someone who might possibly be helpful in this regard,” he said.
“They hosted the Iranian foreign minister recently, but it seems like they’ve been holding off on putting any pressure on Iran to end the conflict, just waiting for this visit.”
While Beijing has amassed oil reserves that have helped it weather global energy shortfalls, such resources are finite, so China has an interest in opening the strait.
At the same time, if Washington – Beijing’s chief strategic competitor – is weakened globally from the Iran conflict, which is increasingly looking like an unwinnable war for many observers.
The Economist magazine summed up that dynamic on its front cover last month, featuring a photo of Xi looking at Trump with a quote attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
Inderjeet Parmar, professor of international politics at City St George’s, University of London, said Trump heads to China “chastened” by the shortcomings of the Iran war.
“So Trump is going there in a bit of a situation,” Parmar told Al Jazeera.
“He needs Chinese support for opening the Strait of Hormuz. China needs the Strait of Hormuz to open for its own reasons – of oil and energy from Iran and so on. At the same time, they can use this as leverage regarding Taiwan.”
Trump said before departing for China on Tuesday that he does not need Xi’s help on Iran, saying that the conflict is “very much under control”.
However, with petrol prices in the US skyrocketing and fuelling inflation, diplomacy stalled, and Trump’s popularity plummeting, the war appears to be hampering the Republican president’s domestic and global standing.
Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on China to intervene in the crisis.
“The attacks from Iran have closed the strait. We are reopening it. So I would urge the Chinese to join us in supporting this international operation,” Bessent said.
He also underscored that China is the top importer of Iranian oil, accusing Beijing of “funding the largest state sponsor of terrorism”, referring to Tehran.
“Let’s see them step up with some diplomacy and get the Iranians to open the strait,” he said.
William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, said China and the US both want Hormuz to open, but “their preferred approach to achieve this goal don’t align.”
While China has been calling for restraint from all sides, Trump has been threatening Iran with enormous military attacks almost daily.
Iran has refused to hold direct talks with the US before Washington lifts its naval blockade.
A US military initiative to reopen Hormuz by force, while maintaining the siege on Iranian ports, earlier this month was short-lived, ending in less than 48 hours without significantly increasing traffic in the strait.
“Washington understands that it may need Beijing’s help to nudge Iran back to the negotiating table, but it is also aware of the implications of directly seeking support from Beijing to end the blockade, as it would likely mean giving China the upper hand in the bilateral relations,” Yang told Al Jazeera.
“As a result, Trump has been trying to push Iran to accept the conditions that the US had put forward through coercion, threatening to resume bombing if Tehran doesn’t agree to its terms.”
In April, Xi proposed a “four-point plan to safeguard and promote Middle East peace and stability”:
While vague, the proposal reflected a preference for multilateralism and diplomacy in contrast with Trump’s reliance on military power to advance his goals in the region.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, last week.
“China believes that a comprehensive ceasefire is of utmost urgency, that resuming hostilities is even less acceptable, and that adhering to negotiations is particularly important,” Beijing’s Foreign Ministry said after the meeting.
“China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security, and appreciates Iran’s willingness to seek a political solution through diplomatic channels.”
At the same time, China called for restoring “normal and safe passage” through Hormuz, which appears to be at odds with Iran’s claim of sovereignty over the strategic waterway, which emerged after the war.
China buys oil from Iran despite US sanctions, and Washington has voiced concern about Beijing’s sale of products that could be repurposed for military use by Tehran.
However, before the war, the Iran file was an afterthought in the competition between the US and China.
Over the past two decades, Washington has come to see Beijing as its top global challenger as the Chinese economy and regional and global influence have grown.
During his first term, Trump formally recognised China as a strategic competitor of the US.
“Although the United States seeks to continue to cooperate with China, China is using economic inducements and penalties, influence operations, and implied military threats to persuade other states to heed its political and security agenda,” the 2017 US National Security Strategy read.
“China’s infrastructure investments and trade strategies reinforce its geopolitical aspirations.”
Former President Joe Biden picked up where Trump left off with his administration declaring Beijing a “pacing challenge” for Washington.
The US has pushed to deepen its alliances in the Asia Pacific region to counter China’s rise.
As the competition intensified, the relationship between the two countries soured in recent years over several points of tension: trade practices, sanctions, Beijing’s claims to the South China Sea, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the status of Taiwan.
Ties particularly worsened in 2022 when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan.
Months later, there was another crisis – Washington accused Beijing of sending a “spy balloon” into US airspace. China insisted that the aircraft was a weather balloon that drifted over the US.
But since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump and his administration have put less emphasis on the great power competition.
Trump’s most recent National Security Strategy said the US aims to shift its focus to the Western Hemisphere, rather than the rivalry in the Asia Pacific region.
Still, tariffs and trade remain a major irritant in the relationship. Iran and Taiwan could also exacerbate tensions.
While Iran considers itself a regional power and stresses its independence from allies and foes alike, China does have levers of leverage that it can crank up against Tehran – namely, trade ties.
But if Xi were to help Tr
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