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Bowen: Strait of Hormuz standoff raises risk of sliding back into all-out war

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The ceasefire in the Gulf is four weeks old and showing its age. The US and Iran's determination to keep the pressure on each other has put it in serious jeopardy. This is a dangerous moment.

The ceasefire opened up a chance for diplomacy that looked for a short time as if it might make progress. Americans and Iranians faced each across a conference table in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, but came away empty-handed.

The Pakistanis are trying to revive the process, without much success so far. Both America and Iran want to have a deal. But they have different deals in mind and are sticking to their red lines. Until one or the other, or preferably both, decide to offer concessions, renewed full-scale hostilities remain an incident away.

More than ever there is a strong risk of misperception and miscalculation of intentions and consequences. Both are classic ways in which crises slip out of control and wars escalate.

America's decision to escort two ships through the Strait of Hormuz was always going to produce a reaction from Iran. This week's urgent question is whether it ends there or whether more action and reaction power a slide back into all-out war.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the central issue in the crisis. It was open to navigation, without restriction or the payment of tolls, until 28 February -when the US and Israel attacked Iran. Now Iran has demonstrated how closing it can mean everything from an offensive weapon to a revenue raiser and an insurance policy. This week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has told MPs that there will be no return to the old status quo.

The US cannot allow Iran to make the Strait of Hormuz into home waters that the Tehran regime can control and use to charge shippers millions in tolls, without accepting that tactical victory over Iran's armed forces has become a strategic defeat.

Closing the strait has global economic consequences. The length of time it stays closed will determine how severe the consequences of the war will be for people across the world. Shortages of oil and gas, as well as helium for high tech industries and feedstocks for fertiliser, are having an increasingly heavy impact on millions of people a long way from the war zone. The fertiliser crisis risks causing hunger in countries that do not have secure food supplies.

President Donald Trump's motives, declared and undeclared, are always complex and changeable. He has used social media to try to persuade oil traders not to drive up the price of petrol for American motorists.

He must also be frustrated by the Iranian regime's resilience and determination to resist however much pain America and Israel inflict on the country. A regime prepared to shoot its own citizens in the streets for protesting, as the Islamic Republic's security forces did once again in January, is not going to worry too much about their welfare – at least not until it affects their hold on power.

Trump's frustration is the result of his own rash decision to go to war assuming an easy victory, without thinking through the consequences of what happens and what to do if it isn't easy. The US has shown the power of its highly efficient military, but the president's fluctuating decision-making has left the country in a strategic bind.

Trump's decision to order the US Navy to escort a couple of ships through the strait does not restore freedom of navigation. Between 40 and 60 vessels were transiting the strait every day until the US and Israel went to war.

Iran has shown that it is prepared to go back to war and might even be prepared to set the pace of escalation. It is strategy full of risk, but for the men who have replaced the former supreme leader and all the senior leaders killed by the US and Israel, it is a risk worth taking.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) looks to be the main target for Iran among their Gulf Arab neighbours. In response, the UAE has doubled down on its alliances with the US and Israel. The Israelis sent an Iron Dome anti-missile system to the UAE, and IDF soldiers to operate it – a significant gesture they refused to offer to Ukraine.

Iran's decision to target the Emirati port of Fujairah is significant. It is on the UAE's small stretch of coastline that is beyond the Strait of Hormuz, facing instead the Gulf of Oman.

Fujairah is the terminus of an oil pipeline that allows the UAE to export without going through Hormuz and has big oil storage facilities. That makes it strategically and economically vital for the Emiratis. They are deeply concerned about Iran's next moves. Despite robust public warnings to Tehran, and capable armed forces, the Emiratis still prefer to stay out of direct attacks on Iran. That policy might not survive a collapse of the ceasefire. Longer term, it is spending more billions on American weapons.

Trump seems still to believe that the Iranian regime will buckle in the face of US pressure and military force. He would like to be able to flourish a deal, but he will not accept one that his critics would say was not as good as the nuclear agreement that became President Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievement.

During his first term, Trump dumped that agreement, known as the JCPOA, with substantial encouragement from Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He replaced it with a policy he called "maximum pressure" that failed to stop Iran enriching uranium and now looks to have started America and Iran on the road to a war that has no easy exits.

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Estonia says Nato jet shot down drone over its territory

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Estonia has said a Nato fighter jet shot down a drone, which it suspects was a Ukrainian projectile knocked off course by Russian electronic jamming, over its territory.

Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said a Romanian F-16 fired a missile and drone debris fell in a marshy area in central Estonia on Tuesday. No damage was reported.

Ukraine reacted by accusing Russia of deliberately redirecting Ukrainian drones launched at "legitimate military targets" in Russia, apologising to "Estonia and all of our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents".

Russia has not commented on the latest in a series of recent drone incursions over Nato members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Last week, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina resigned following a political crisis over Russia-bound Ukrainian drones straying into Latvian territory.

Earlier this month, two Ukrainian drones hit an empty oil storage site in Latvia. Ukraine said this was the result of electronic jamming by Russia.

A similar incursion was reported by Estonia and Latvia in March.

Moscow has accused the three Baltic states of allowing Ukraine to use their "air corridors" to strike targets inside Russia – a claimed denied by Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius.

Ukraine has recently intensified its drone and missile attacks against targets in Russia, including oil and gas facilities near the Baltic states.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

At Tuesday's news conference, Pevkur said the drone was shot down shortly after 12:00 local time (09:00 GMT) between the lake of Võrtsjärv and the town of Põltsamaa.

He said the projectile had been identified as a potential threat even before it entered Estonia's air space.

"We received early information from Latvia about a drone that had strayed off course, and Estonia tracked the drone until Romanian fighter jets participating in the Baltic air policing mission shot it down," the Estonian defence ministry said in a statement.

Pevkur added he had "immediately" discussed the incident with his Ukrainian counterpart, who apologised for the incident.

"Estonia has not granted permission to use its airspace to anyone other than its allies, and the Ukrainians have not asked for this permission," the Estonian defence minister said.

Local media outlets later published photos of what they said were drone fragments on the ground.

The drone crashed into a forest, about 30m (98ft) from the nearest residential building, Estonia's ERR public broadcaster reported.

It quoted a local resident as saying: "There was a loud bang and I saw the drone fall from the sky."

In Ukraine, Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said "Russia continues to redirect Ukrainian drones into the Baltics" and did this "on purpose, together with intensified propaganda".

In a statement, he said: "We apologise to Estonia and all of our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents," stressing "we use the Russian airspace to get to them".

His comments came just hours after Russia's foreign intelligence agency SVR said that Ukraine was planning to launch its drones against Russian targets from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

SVR reported that Ukrainian drone military personnel had already been deployed at military bases in Latvia.

Latvia dismissed the claim as Russian "disinformation", with the foreign ministry saying Riga "has not given its consent for its territory and airspace to be used to carry out attacks against targets in the Russian Federation".

And Ukraine's Tykhyi said "there is no truth in Moscow's latest set of falsehoods accusing Ukraine of preparing attacks against Russia from the territory of Latvia".

There is growing concern in the three Baltic states on the easternmost flank of Nato that Moscow is planning major provocations to test the resolve of the military alliance.

Last year, more Nato countries agreed to move troops and fighter jets eastwards after more than a dozen drones had entered the airspace of Poland, another member of the alliance.

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Southampton expelled from play-offs for spying

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Spygate is alleged to have taken place two days before Middlesbrough play-off semi-final first leg against Southampton

Southampton have been thrown out of the play-offs after admitting they spied on three clubs in the Championship season.

Middlesbrough, beaten by Southampton in the semi-final, have been reinstated and will now play Hull City for a place in the Premier League.

The EFL charged Saints with watching training sessions involving Oxford United and Ipswich Town, in addition to filming Middlesbrough as they prepared for the first leg of their play-off semi-final on 7 May.

The independent disciplinary commission also handed Southampton a four-point deduction in the Championship for next season.

Saints will now miss out on a game dubbed the richest in world football, with the winners of the play-off final guaranteed a minimum £110m in Premier League broadcast revenue.

The final will remain on Saturday at Wembley with the kick-off time to be confirmed.

Southampton admitted to "multiple breaches of EFL regulations related to the unauthorised filming of other clubs' training", the EFL said.

The club have also received a reprimand in respect of all the charges.

Sources have confirmed to BBC Sport that Southampton will lodge an appeal on Wednesday and will argue that the punishment is disproportionate.

The EFL said it would be "working to try and resolve any appeal on Wednesday 20 May".

It added that "subject to the outcome, it could result in a further change to Saturday's fixture".

The appeal will be heard by an Independent League Arbitration panel with three new members.

The EFL said in a statement: "Southampton was first charged on Friday 8 May, with further charges issued on Sunday 17 May in relation to additional breaches during the 2025-26 season.

"Those additional charges arose from matters identified after the initial proceedings involving Middlesbrough were initiated.

"Southampton admitted breaches of regulations requiring clubs to act with the utmost good faith and prohibiting the observation of another club's training session within 72 hours of a scheduled match.

"The admitted breaches concern fixtures against Oxford United in December 2025, Ipswich Town in April 2026 and Middlesbrough in May 2026."

Southampton did not win any of the three games – they lost 2-1 at Oxford, drew 2-2 at home to Ipswich and claimed a 0-0 draw at Boro.

The statement continued: "The EFL is now in discussion with all three clubs regarding the implications of today's decision and will make a further announcement in due course."

Middlesbrough issued a statement which said they "welcome the outcome".

"We believe this sends out a clear message for the future of our game regarding sporting integrity and conduct," it added.

"As a club, we are now focused on our game against Hull City at Wembley on Saturday. Ticket information for our supporters will be available shortly."

Southampton had already sold tickets for Saturday's game, and their supporters will receive a full refund.

They must now wait to see if the Football Association issues any charges for individuals involved in the spying. The EFL can only apply sanctions against its member clubs.

After a spying case at the 2024 Olympic Games, three members of Canada's staff, including the head coach, were banned from all football by Fifa for a year.

Middlesbrough were at their Rockliffe Park training base preparing for the game against Southampton 48 hours later.

The spy, Southampton analyst intern William Salt, is said to have parked at the golf club, then walked a couple of hundred yards down a road which leads to a raised area of ground.

Sources told the BBC that the accused simply stood pointing his mobile at the training session, while wearing in-ear headphones.

Middlesbrough staff believe he may have been live-streaming the session via a video call.

A member of Middlesbrough's staff approached, say BBC sources, but the person would not identify himself. Then, he quickly deleted some content off his phone before running off into the golf club.

He jogged into the toilets, changed his clothes and hurriedly left the site.

Middlesbrough's photographer took photos and matched him to a photo on the Southampton website. One of those pictures was subsequently made public last week.

Boro were furious and quickly reported it to the EFL.

The EFL charged Southampton with breaking two regulations.

EFL Regulation 3.4, which requires clubs to act towards each other with the utmost good faith; and

EFL Regulation 127, which prohibits any club from observing, or attempting to observe, another club's training session within 72 hours of a scheduled match between the two clubs.

Could Southampton be kicked out of play-offs over Spygate?

Boro want Southampton out of play-offs over Spygate

How Southampton allegedly spied on Middlesbrough

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Grant Shapps quits aerospace firm after watchdog probe

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A former Conservative defence secretary has quit his job with a missile manufacturer over concerns he broke the rules governing the employment of former ministers.

Sir Grant Shapps resigned as chairman of Cambridge Aerospace on 30 April "to simplify matters" and after the firm secured a multimillion-pound government missile contract.

He said he had had no involvement in the deal or the company's military work and, despite a title of "chairman", had not chaired its board or been a director, but was "one of several co-founders".

Ministerial ethics watchdog Sir Laurie Magnus said he had "allowed a perception of impropriety to develop" and "failed to uphold the standards expected in the rules".

Sir Grant served as defence secretary under Rishi Sunak and has held a number of ministerial posts in government.

He was the Conservative MP for Welwyn Hatfield in Hertfordshire from 2005 to 2024, when he lost his seat in the general election.

The now defunct Advisory Committee on Business Appointments (Acoba) approved his role with the company in 2025 on condition that he play no part in its defence-related work until two years after he left office.

Acoba's decision was criticised by anti-corruption campaigners at the time, including Labour MP Phil Brickell, who said Sir Grant's claim the company was focused on "civilian aerospace" was "stretching credulity" given the firm's own description of itself as involved in "defence tech".

In correspondence with Sir Grant, Sir Laurie questioned whether he had complied with this condition, noting the company "seems publicly to have only one project, which is defence-related".

The watchdog initially contacted Sir Grant following the announcement on 10 April of a contract for Cambridge Aerospace to supply the UK and its Gulf allies with "Skyhammer" interceptor missiles.

Sir Laurie said the announcement "appears to be at direct variance with your original description of the role".

He added: "It is, on the face of it, difficult to reconcile the current scope of Cambridge Aerospace's operations with the restriction that you avoid defence matters entirely, and in the absence of a fresh application for advice in view of changes to the nature of the business of Cambridge Aerospace under your chairship."

In response to Sir Laurie's letters, Sir Grant said he had "scrupulously" followed Acoba's rules and was not involved "in any way, at any time, in any capacity" in the contract between Cambridge Aerospace and the Ministry of Defence.

But he apologised for not seeking further advice as the company began working on defence matters, saying this was "an oversight for which the excessive speed of events is the only mitigating circumstance".

Sir Grant also declined to answer a series of detailed questions from Sir Laurie, citing "legal obligations of confidentiality which I cannot unilaterally waive".

Brickell said he welcomed Sir Grant's resignation, but called for tougher sanctions for former ministers who broke the rules.

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