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Who will win the World Cup? BBC pundits make their predictions

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The World Cup starts in Mexico City's Azteca Stadium on Thursday and finishes in the MetLife Stadium near New York City on 19 July.

Forty-eight teams will contest the tournament, which will be played out in 104 matches across three countries over 39 days, including the co-hosts – Canada, Mexico and the United States – plus holders Argentina.

Who will get their hands on the famous gold trophy this time? Who are the other main contenders? And how will England and Scotland do?

BBC Sport's TV and radio football pundits and co-commentators have predicted what will happen over the next five weeks, and we have asked AI and Opta's 'supercomputer' for their picks too.

Argentina beat France in the final of the 2022 World Cup

Alan Shearer: France, but there's a caveat that comes with it – only if there is no in-house fighting. With the ability they have in forward positions, two or three big players are going to be left out every game, so it will come down to whether they cope with that in the right way.

Danny Murphy: It's hard to look past France with the firepower they have, when you think about extra time in hot weather against tired legs.

The likes of Rayan Cherki, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue can't all start, but they can be gamechangers if they come on after 70 minutes in 30 degrees heat.

Olivier Giroud: For me the two strongest teams are France and Spain. But will they meet each other in the final or before? That will be the question, but I obviously hope France will win.

Wayne Rooney: England and Spain will make the final, and hopefully England will win it.

Thomas Frank: France are up there of course, and Spain too because they are very clear in how they play. That gives them a massive strength, although I still doubt them a little because they rely on Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams as the wingers and, if they don't have them, I am not sure they have enough individual quality to do it in the end.

Along with Brazil, Argentina, England and Portugal, they are the main contenders. A lot of people are saying it is France or Spain, but for me it is between Brazil and England… and I am saying England!

Micah Richards: How teams deal with the humidity is going to play a big part at this tournament, so the South American teams will be strong.

But I just feel it's going to be a team who are really good at keeping the ball and that points me in the direction of Spain instead. Argentina will go close though, because of the way they work for Lionel Messi. I still think he can do something special, too.

Steph Houghton: Hopefully it's England but, looking at other teams, France have so much quality right through their team – especially in attacking areas.

Gael Clichy: France, Spain and England are the three for me who will do well. Spain seem to win everything, at every age group, so of course they are up there, but being French I am going for them to win it.

Joe Hart: England. But I am not actually that bothered whether I am right or wrong. I just like to back my people and I want England to do it.

Martin Keown: Looking at the draw, there will be some absolute blockbuster quarter-finals if the favourites win their groups, like England versus Brazil and Argentina against Portugal – or Messi against Cristiano Ronaldo.

Is this the hardest World Cup there has ever been to win? Maybe. It feels very open. My head is telling me the best team is France, my heart is telling me that it could be England.

Paul Robinson: The only thing that stops France from winning it is France. They will need a harmonious dressing room.

Pat Nevin: This is a guess, but England have a real chance. Along with France, they are my favourites and it's a toss-up between the two as to who will win it.

I also wouldn't be shocked if we get a left-field winner this time, and Morocco are the ones who jump out at me, because I covered most of their games when they reached the last four in Qatar. From what I hear, they might be better now than they were then – and they were great then. They will be used to the heat too, which always helps.

Ellen White: Well, obviously I want England to win it. That's what I am going with, but if that wasn't to happen then France have a very good squad.

Tony Pulis: It's ridiculous that there are 48 teams, and 40 more games than last time. Fair play to all the countries that are going, everyone will enjoy it, but football at this level is now being used as a cash cow.

I've got Argentina, Brazil, France, England, Morocco, Portugal, Spain and Senegal as my quarter-finalists. My pick to win it? France.

Chris Sutton: Spain are an outstanding team but I've gone for France to win the past two World Cups and I wasn't far wrong. I am not going to change my mind now – they didn't really click at the last Euros but I look at their frontline and think they will be hard to stop.

Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Total votes

France (9): Scott Brown, Gael Clichy, Rachel Corsie, Olivier Giroud, Danny Murphy, Paul Robinson, Tony Pulis, Alan Shearer & Chris Sutton

England (7): Thomas Frank, Joe Hart, Steph Houghton, Martin Keown, Wayne Rooney, Sue Smith & Ellen White

Thomas Tuchel on his World Cup squad selections

Thomas Frank: To win the World Cup you need individual quality, and England have definitely got that. Their midfield is very strong and if they can put the right defence together it is strong enough.

They have a real chance. The team will be well structured because Thomas Tuchel is a top coach, plus they have experience in these tournaments and I am sure they will get their togetherness right because they seem to have some fantastic characters and leaders in the group.

Ellen White: We've got an unbelievable squad, and I feel like Tuchel will create a nice blend in our team. We also have some great players, who have a lot of momentum – like Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka who have just won the Premier League with Arsenal.

Steph Houghton: As well as experience, we've got some quality young players coming through. The only thing that worries me is a lack of game time for some players in our defensive unit, like John Stones or Reece James.

Alan Shearer: I don't think we will win it, but we can make the semi-finals because of the ability we have, plus we have a manager who is not going to be afraid to make big decisions and leave certain players out. I am not sure that has always been the case.

Hopefully he can get the best out of Harry Kane, like Bayern Munich have done this season when they have had players running past him. My guess is that Morgan Rogers, Saka and Marcus Rashford will play, and there are more goals there for England – they have all scored goals all season.

Wayne Rooney: I'm going with Kane to get the Golden Boot.

Chris Sutton: I worry a bit about England's defence, but you go through their team and they don't have too many weaknesses.

Sue Smith: England have an elite manager who knows how to win things. The team is picked on togetherness and balance, but still has the star quality to succeed.

Danny Murphy: It would be a disappointment not to make the semi-finals with the quality we have got. I think we are a bit too reliant on Kane. Lots of great teams are reliant on one goalscorer but when you look at the other players in the squad, none of them have been prolific or even consistent for England.

At the back, I wouldn't have us down as being as good as France and Spain either. But being weaker defensively than we are offensively doesn't mean that we are not capable of winning it, if the luck goes our way.

Martin Keown: England have potentially got the toughest of any last-16 tie, if we end up playing Mexico at the Azteca Stadium [if both teams win their groups and beat third-placed teams in the last 32]. Talk about advantage Mexico, taking into account altitude and climate and what that might take from the England team. Then we've probably got Argentina or Portugal in the semi-finals if they progress as expected too.

But, wha

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The Papers: 'Violence in Belfast' and Trump's 'war words'

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Many of the front pages carry a freeze-frame from the graphic video of Monday night's attack in Belfast.

The Guardian leads on the disorder in the city, saying the violence erupted after what it calls "agitators", including Tommy Robinson and Elon Musk, exhorted people to take to the streets.

The Daily Telegraph says a WhatsApp message that was "forwarded many times" predicted a "mad day in Belfast" and urged men aged 18 and over to "wear dark clothing" and "be prepared to fight or be arrested". The i Paper highlights pleas from the police for calm, and says there are fears of further disorder across the UK.

Many of the papers focus on the suspect, who police have said is a Sudanese refugee.

The Daily Mail says Britain has a "gaping back door", raising "grave questions". The Mail's leader column urges the government to face up to what the paper calls "the migrant threat".

The Times believes there will be "renewed scrutiny" of the Common Travel Area, which allows for the free movement of people between the UK and Ireland after police said they believed the suspect had travelled from Dublin to Belfast by bus, before claiming asylum.

The Daily Express praises those who sought to intervene in the stabbing, calling them "the very best of humanity". The Daily Mirror reports that a fundraising campaign has begun to buy a pint for the man who arrived at the scene with a hurling stick. Matt McKiernan is quoted in the Sun saying "instinct took over" and "most people" would have done the same.

And the Daily Telegraph interprets comments by Rachel Reeves at a conference yesterday as a signal that in order to pay for higher defence spending, taxes will need to rise. The chancellor is said to have told an investors' gathering that "despite the pain of higher taxes, better to do that than get into a situation where we were before, with interest rates climbing".

The Times reports that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to announce the extra defence funding as soon as this week, with discussions going down to the wire.

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Illegal mini-marts to shut for up to 12 months under law change prompted by BBC

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Illegal mini-marts, barbers and vape shops could be shut for up to a year under new powers announced by the government, following lengthy investigative reporting by BBC News into organised crime on British high streets.

We have exposed drug gangs, child sexual exploitation, money laundering and immigration crime linked to shops selling illegal cigarettes, vapes and drugs.

As the law stands in England and Wales, authorities can only close a shop for three months, with an option to extend closure to six months using anti-social behaviour legislation. The government's planned change will double the potential closure time.

Making the announcement, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood praised the BBC's reporting, saying that people felt high streets were being taken over by "organised crime [and] immigration criminality". The government was "not prepared to tolerate it", she said.

This type of criminality "makes people lose faith, not just in their local area but in democracy, in what our country is, and we can't let that happen", she added.

The Home Office says the extended closures will give investigators more time to gather evidence, pursue prosecutions and identify business owners, while preventing rogue operators from simply reopening and resuming illegal activity.

The news has been welcomed by Trading Standards officers, who have repeatedly told us they lack the necessary powers to tackle the problem.

"Closure orders are a key enforcement tool… for tackling 'dodgy shops'" says John Herriman, chief executive of the Chartered Trading Standards Institute (CTSI).

There is "almost universal support" from his profession for the new measures, he adds.

Other Trading Standards officers told us it would become less financially viable for unscrupulous business owners to simply sit out closure orders, and it would force landlords to pay more attention to who they are renting to.

For nine months, we have repeatedly asked the home secretary for an interview to discuss what we had found.

Last week, we were invited to join Mahmood on police raids of mini-marts on Soho Road in the Handsworth area of Birmingham – a high street bordering her own constituency.

At one shop, police and Trading Standards officers found illegal cigarettes and snuff (finely ground tobacco). A shopworker was arrested after a makeshift weapon – a plank with a nail – was found under the counter.

The shopworker, who said he was a student from Afghanistan, admitted that he thought selling illegal cigarettes was wrong.

When asked why he was selling them, he replied: "Perhaps you should ask the manager, he's the owner." However, the owner was not about, he said.

Soho Road has recently been the focus of Operation Fearless, a West Midlands Police initiative to tackle street-level crime.

"In all the areas I've worked in… it's by far the worst here," one of the officers involved, PC Victoria Gaunt, told us.

She said police had found shops selling prescription drugs, cocaine, heroin and cannabis. "You name it, you can probably buy it," she told us, and added that she would not feel safe in the area if she was not wearing her uniform and stab vest.

She also said she had seen "people walking around with machetes, chasing people" and witnessed "a huge increase in prostitution and exploitation of girls".

A BBC undercover reporter also visited about a dozen businesses on Soho Road and found counterfeit packs of cigarettes on sale for as little as £3. The average cost of a genuine pack is between £16.50 and £19.50.

Shopworkers also told the reporter there was open drug dealing on the street.

The home secretary told us she understood public feeling and said she and her family were also frustrated at seeing "people who are getting away with breaking our laws, getting away with open criminality".

Over the course of 14 months, BBC News has exposed the shocking reality of organised crime taking over high streets in England and Wales.

We joined the National Crime Agency (NCA) last year as it raided barbers, mini-marts and vape shops, after reports they were being used for money laundering and illegal working.

In the following months, we were shown shops with secret underground tunnels supplying sacks of illegal cigarettes, we exposed asylum seekers buying and selling shops for cash, and exposed a Kurdish organised-crime gang operating the length of Great Britain.

In March this year, we revealed how a senior council worker had repeatedly shared with local authorities reports of children as young as 11 being sexually abused in mini-marts.

Most recently, we went undercover to report how cocaine, cannabis, laughing gas and prescription pills were being offered on a West Midlands street described as "lawless" by an anonymous law enforcement source.

The home secretary said late last year that the BBC's evidence, gathered up until then, proved "the system was broken" and announced an "urgent" investigation led by the NCA, Immigration Enforcement, HMRC and police forces from across England and Wales.

Last month, the government announced a new £30m High Street organised crime unit which it said would deliver new police and Trading Standards officers, tax raids and a crackdown on illegal working.

Asked if the government's intervention was too little, too late, Mahmood told the BBC she believed the latest measures represented a "game-changing national crackdown".

The Home Office says the new extended closure orders should become law by the end of this year, after it lays secondary legislation. The new powers will then come into force in early 2027.

The government says it will be briefing authorities in Northern Ireland and Scotland of the changes to closure orders in England and Wales, as they have different enforcement legislation in place for shutting shops.

Additional reporting: Steve Fildes and Phill Edwards

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Alleged Bondi Beach gunman charged with another 19 offences

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The man accused of killing fifteen people in an attack on a Jewish festival at Sydney's Bondi Beach in December has been charged with 19 additional offences.

Naveed Akram was already facing 59 charges after the shooting including 15 counts of murder, 40 counts of attempted murder, and one count of committing a terrorist act.

According to court records seen by the BBC, new charges were filed in April but have only now been confirmed by authorities.

The fresh charges are 10 counts of "shoot at with intent to murder", six counts of discharging a firearm with intent to resist arrest, and three counts of causing wounding or grievous bodily harm with intent to murder.

Akram, 24, has made a series of short court appearances but is yet to enter a plea to the charges. He is due back in court in August.

On Wednesday, prosecutors told the court that investigators from the Joint Counter Terrorism Team were "progressing" steadily through the evidence.

It includes 230,000 CCTV images as well as content on several devices belonging to people with alleged links to Akram which need to be translated, prosecutors said.

Outside court, Akram's lawyer Leonie Gittani told the media that the extra charges were not a surprise to her client.

"He was sort of aware of it on the last occasion, but [in] a matter of this magnitude, it's not unusual for additional charges to be laid," she said, according to the national broadcaster ABC.

"It's a process now that we've got to follow."

Asked about the CCTV images, Gittani said: "It's an unprecedented matter and so… there's a lot to come. We've got a job to do, and that's what we intend to do".

Akram's father Sajid Akram, 50 – who was also armed and shot at the crowd on Bondi Beach – was killed by police at the scene of the shooting on 14 December 2025.

The younger Akram was critically injured by police and later transferred from hospital to prison.

Court documents released in late December alleged that the two shooters "meticulously" planned the attack on Bondi Beach for months and visited the location for reconnaissance two days prior.

One video – taken on one of their mobile phones in October – was described as showing the men sitting in front of an image of an Islamic State group (IS) flag.

They could be heard making statements about their motivations for the attack and condemning "the acts of 'Zionists'", police said.

Police said separate footage from October showed the father and son "conducting firearms training in a countryside location", believed to be in New South Wales.

They were seen "firing shotguns and moving in a tactical manner", officials added.

In April, Akram lost a court bid to suppress the identity of his immediate family due to safety concerns.

The attack was Australia's worst mass shooting in almost three decades and prompted sweeping gun law reforms and a crackdown on hate speech.

It led to a royal commission into antisemitism in Australia. which began public hearings in February.

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