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United Arab Emirates to quit oil cartel Opec

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is quitting the Opec and Opec+ groups of major oil producing nations next month after nearly 60 years of membership.

The UAE said its decision would help it meet growing global energy demand in the long term after recent investments to boost its production capacity.

It is seen as a blow to the cartel, with one analyst describing the exit as "the beginning of the end of Opec".

The Gulf state's energy minister said being a country with no obligation under the groups would give it more flexibility.

Opec was formed in 1960 by five countries – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – and its aim has been to co-ordinate production to provide steady revenue for its members.

The number of countries in the cartel has fluctuated over the years, but in addition to the five founding members it also includes Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and the Republic of the Congo.

The UAE joined in 1967, and its departure will leave the cartel with 11 members. There are an additional 10 non-Opec members in the wider Opec+ alliance.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, said it was "the beginning of the end of Opec".

"With the UAE leaving, Opec loses about 15% of its capacity and one of its most compliant members."

The UAE's decision came as the World Bank warned the war in the Middle East has caused the biggest loss of oil supply on record.

Energy prices will rise by about a quarter on average as a result this year, it said, while it could take six months for shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war levels.

"The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest," said the World Bank's chief economist Indermit Gill.

The UAE's decision to leave Opec will not have an immediate impact on global energy supply, due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but could lead to a longer-term boost in output.

The country has invested heavily in boosting its production capacity and has wanted for a long time to pump more oil, economists said.

David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said its departure could lead to lower oil prices but higher volatility on the market in the coming decades.

He added that while the UAE is small, the implications could be major if other member states leave, or countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia decide to ramp up production as a result.

Dr Carole Nakhle, chief executive of Crystol Energy and secretary general of the Arab Energy Club, told the BBC the UAE's decision "has been a long time in the making".

"Abu Dhabi has pursued ambitious production capacity growth, yet often felt constrained by group quotas, especially amid uneven compliance by some members," she said.

Nakhle added that Iran's actions as an Opec member were likely to have reinforced the UAE's decision.

According to the latest figures from Opec, UAE produces 2.9 million barrels of oil a day. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of Opec, produces nine million barrels of oil.

"Saudi Arabia will struggle to keep the rest of Opec together, and effectively have to do most of the heavy lifting regarding internal compliance and market management on its own," Kavonic said, adding other Opec members could follow suit.

"This present a fundamental geopolitical reshaping of the Middle East and oil markets," he added.

📰 மூல செய்தி (Source): https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4pxwlr52yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

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The Papers: Original 'Labour leadership rivals circle' and 'Golden boys' on Baftas red carpet

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Chris Mason: Another crunch moment for Starmer as he pleads with Labour MPs not to topple him

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It feels like the prime minister has to give the speech of his life today.

Those within the Labour Party who want to see him succeed acknowledge that you can't change everything in one speech.

But it is clearly imperative for Sir Keir Starmer to try to calm down a party that is hurting and anxious.

Many Labour MPs have spent the weekend observing the politically scorched earth around them locally – their friends and colleagues in local and devolved government wiped out. There are fraught emotions and there is anger.

And for the last few days now there has been the drip, drip of revolt, with Labour MP after Labour MP coming out publicly to say Starmer has to go.

With every one, a little more of the prime minister's authority drains away.

Incidentally, don't underestimate what a big deal it is for any individual MP to go over the top and say their boss should go – not least because, for now at least, those that have done so are a tiny fraction of the total number of Labour MPs.

And it was his name up in lights as their leader when many of them won their seats for the first time, and often in parts of the country where Labour rarely if ever win. So to say now, out loud, that you think he is a dud is a big deal.

Wherever you look in the Labour Party right now there are knots of anxiety.

Firstly, there is anxiety in Downing Street, of course. They are acutely aware of what is at stake.

Secondly, there is anxiety among the potential challengers, weighing up if, when or whether to go for it. Timing can be everything: get it right, and the premiership can be yours. Get it wrong, and what might be your only chance to be prime minister is gone.

Thirdly, there is anxiety among the many, many Labour MPs keeping their heads down and who really don't want the prime minister to leave right now, nor for there to be a leadership contest.

Then there are those who would like Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham to be Labour's next leader and so don't want a contest right now – because he needs time to firstly find and then win a Westminster seat, having been blocked from standing in one just a few months ago.

So what happens after the speech tomorrow? How do Labour MPs react? Does Catherine West, the former minister who has said she is willing to challenge the prime minister to try to force a contest, decide to back down, or press ahead?

Does the prime minister manage to put people off challenging him, at least for now?

Or is there a flood of anguish that leaves his position untenable and tempts one of the challengers to go for it?

Health Secretary Wes Streeting, in particular, faces a massive call in the next couple of days. He has said he won't challenge Sir Keir, but is prepared to make his case if it becomes clear the prime minister is a goner.

So does he go for it, or not? Some who would like to see him replace Sir Keir think this might be his very best chance, before Burnham can get back to Westminster.

It is worth emphasising that it is not easy to dislodge a sitting prime minister who doesn't want to budge and, up until now at least, Sir Keir has given every indication he wants to stick around.

But what a moment he confronts and his party confronts.

The Labour Party is in a glum swirl right now, where no one can be certain what will happen next.

Whatever does – or doesn't – happen will have consequences for us all.

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Ailing Iran Nobel laureate given bail and hospital transfer

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Iranian human rights campaigner Narges Mohammadi has been transferred from jail to a Tehran hospital amid concern over her deteriorating health.

Iranian authorities granted Mohammadi "a sentence suspension on heavy bail", a foundation run by her family said on Sunday.

Last week Mohammadi's family and supporters warned she could die in prison after suffering two suspected heart attacks earlier this year.

Mohammadi, 54, was awarded the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize for her activism against female oppression in Iran and promoting human rights.

After pleas from her family for her to be transferred from prison, Mohammadi is "now at Tehran Pars Hospital to be treated by her own medical team", ​the Narges Mohammadi Foundation said in a statement.

She had spent 10 days hospitalised in Zanjan in northern Iran, where she had been serving her sentence.

Mohammadi's Paris-based husband said "she is not in a favourable general condition" and that "her status remains unstable", in a statement over the weekend.

The activist is believed to have lost about 20kg (three stone) while in prison, and has difficulty speaking and is barely recognisable, according to her lawyer Chirinne Ardakani.

In 2021, Mohammadi began serving a 13-year sentence on charges of committing "propaganda activity against the state" and "collusion against state security", which she denied.

In December 2024, she was given a temporary release from Tehran's notorious Evin prison on medical grounds.

Mohammadi was arrested last December for making "provocative remarks" at a memorial ceremony, Iranian authorities said at the time. Her family said she was taken to hospital after being beaten during the arrest.

In early February, Mohammadi was sentenced by a Revolutionary Court to an additional seven-and-a-half years in prison after being convicted of "gathering and collusion" and "propaganda activities", her lawyer said.

Last month, Mohammadi's brother Hamidreza said his sister had been found unconscious by fellow inmates at Zanjan prison after suffering a suspected heart attack.

The foundation's statement on Sunday said "a suspension is not enough" and that the human rights activist requires "permanent, specialised care".

"We must ensure she never returns to prison to face the 18 years remaining on her sentence," it read.

"Now is the time to demand her unconditional freedom and the dismissal of all charges. No human and women's rights activists should ever be imprisoned for their peaceful work," it said.

📰 மூல செய்தி (Source): https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1j257w87neo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

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