Territorially, Russia is at a standstill in 2026, assessments of its ground war reveal.
Evidence of Russia’s poor performance in its war in Ukraine, both militarily and economically, has been mounting over the past week.
The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has confirmed earlier assessments that Russia has lost territory it previously occupied in Ukraine.
“Ukraine retook approximately 400 square kilometres in and around Dnipropetrovsk – more territory than at any time since late 2022 – during the quarter,” a report to Congress revealed on May 18.
Russia has still made a net territorial gain in 2026, but its advance is slowing down, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank.
The ISW found that Russia advanced by a net 104 sq km (40 sq miles) between January 1 and May 26, 2026, compared to its seizure of 1,619 sq km (625 sq miles) during the same period last year.
It said Russian forces had infiltrated and contested another 628 sq km (242.5 sq miles), but did not take control.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian casualties had increased to 145,000 this year, of which 86,000 were killed and 59,000 troops seriously wounded.
Ukraine says it has drone video of each confirmed kill.
Al Jazeera cannot verify casualty claims by either side.
Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said it meant 179 Russian losses per square kilometre of advance, compared to 67 last year.
That rate is higher than what Ukraine has assessed Russia is currently able to replace through recruitment.
Russia’s war is also becoming more difficult to finance. Having exceeded its entire 2026 budget deficit allowance by April, and gutted its foreign exchange reserves, Russia has been drawing down gold reserves at an unprecedented pace.
According to its Central Bank, Russia has sold 27.9 tonnes of its gold reserves this year, worth more than $4bn. That leaves Russian gold reserves at their lowest since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The DIA attributed Ukraine’s clawback of 400 sq km (154.5 sq miles) of its territory to Russia losing access to Starlink satellite services used for targeting and counter-battery fire.
Ukraine attributes its success to its strategy of interdicting Russian logistics through mid-range drone and artillery strikes.
Fedorov said Ukraine was doubling down on this strategy through a programme called Logistical Lockdown, “to scale up middle-strike and systematically destroy Russian capabilities at the operational depth”.
Ukraine says this tactic has prevented reinforcements of men and equipment from reaching the frontlines, diminishing Russia’s superiority in depth of resources and mass.
On May 21, Kherson occupation governor Vladimir Saldo restricted movement along the M-14 highway connecting Mariupol, Berdyansk and Melitopol, because of the number of vehicles being struck there.
Ukraine received a boost to its efforts to stop Russian glide bombs, which have devastated frontline positions. Russia drops approximately 3,000 of them a week, and has retrofitted them with guidance systems and fins to enable them to travel up to 100km. That has allowed Russian aircraft to fly them to release points that are out of range of Ukrainian anti-aircraft artillery.
On May 28, Sweden announced it would donate 16 Gripen warplanes to Ukraine, which would also purchase an additional 20 through the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan in a deal worth $2.9bn.
“We have never had enough air defence systems to shoot down such bombs,” Zelenskyy said. “Therefore, Gripen fighters with appropriate weapons, in particular Meteor missiles, which destroy targets at a distance of more than 200 kilometres, will help us push back Russian aircraft.”
Separately, Ukraine continued its long-range strikes on the Russian oil economy, which funds the war.
On May 23 Ukraine struck an oil depot and offloading terminal at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, causing fires and hitting a Russian tanker.
The following day Ukraine struck the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal, also on the Black Sea.
In addition, military and industrial sites were attacked, including the Metafrax Chemicals plant in Perm, 1,700 kilometres inside Russia, and the Taganrog Airbase in Rostov, causing a fire at an aircraft repair plant.
Russia pursued its own aerial tactic of striking Kyiv through massive combined attacks of drones and missiles, which can overwhelm Ukrainian defences.
On May 24, Russia launched 600 long-range drones and 90 missiles against Kyiv and surrounding areas, including 36 ballistic missiles. Ukraine managed to shoot down 91 percent of the drones and 81 percent of the cruise missiles, while 19 missiles likely missed their targets. Those that did hit their targets damaged the Ukrainian foreign ministry and Cabinet of Ministers building, as well as two museums and a food market.
At least 87 people were injured, Zelenskyy said, and two were immediately confirmed to have been killed.
Russia framed the attacks as retaliation for what it said was a strike on a college in occupied Luhansk two days earlier. Russian President Vladimir Putin described that as “a terror attack on a student dormitory of the Starobilsk pedagogical college”, and said it had killed six students and injured 39.
Ukraine’s General Staff said it was a strike on a centre for Advanced Unmanned Technologies run by Rubikon, Russia’s unmanned systems force.
Russia has justified strikes on urban centres in the past as being attacks on military command centres. On May 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov informed his US counterpart, Marco Rubio, that Russia would begin striking “military sites” in Kyiv in retaliation for Starobilsk.
The Russian foreign ministry described the campaign as “a series of systematic strikes against Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities in Kyiv,” and implied foreigners would be targeted at “specific sites for the design, production, programming, and preparation for the use of drones employed by the Kyiv regime with the assistance of NATO specialists responsible for supplying components, providing intelligence and guidance.”
Russia said “decision-making centres and command posts” would also be targeted, and warned foreign citizens, including diplomats, to leave.
Moscow also made a point of mentioning that one of the missiles used in the May 24 attack on Kyiv was its newest, the Oreshnik intermediate range missile, which it has also forward-positioned in Belarus.
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