President Putin has talked about a ceasefire, but some analysts say it’s a ploy to buy time while Moscow’s soldiers are on the back foot.
While Kyiv has recently come under frequent bombardment, the residents of Moscow have largely felt safe.
At least three people, including an Indian citizen, were killed in a drone strike on the Russian capital on Sunday. That day, the Russian Ministry of Defence declared it had shot down more than 1,000 drones in 24 hours.
The attacks come a little over a week after Russian President Vladimir Putin said the war in Ukraine, which has now raged for more than four years and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, may soon be “coming to an end”. They also followed a Russian assault on Kyiv that killed 24.
Putin made the remarks hinting at winding down the war to reporters during Moscow’s pared-back Victory Day parade on May 9. He even expressed a willingness to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a neutral country to sign peace accords but added: “Victory has always been and will be ours.”
This is, of course, not the first time the possibility of peace has been raised.
Before beginning his second term in the White House in January last year, United States President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to end the fighting “within 24 hours”. This has clearly not happened although a three-day ceasefire was brokered by Trump this month.
So naturally, many met Putin’s words with scepticism.
“For this announced ceasefire, not even the announced prisoner exchange has actually taken place, the least that I expected, even that didn’t happen,” Simon Schlegel, Ukraine director at the Center for Liberal Modernity in Berlin, told Al Jazeera. “And then, of course, there is no seamless transition from the things where there are overlapping interests – that both countries get their prisoners and bodily remains back – to the zero-sum games that concern territory, security guarantees, Ukraine’s future geopolitical alignment.”
After the weekend attacks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “The peace process is on pause.”
The Russian and Ukrainian positions are seemingly intractable.
In the past, Putin has insisted there can be no peace until Ukraine relinquishes all territory Russia has claims to, including land not yet under Russian control. If necessary, he warned in December, the territory will be seized by force.
Zelenskyy has countered that he is constitutionally barred from officially ceding any Ukrainian land and, in any case, Russia should not be allowed to claim its invasion as a success. However, Zelenskyy has proposed a ceasefire along the current front lines with a promise that territorial questions will be resolved diplomatically. He has also agreed to abandon Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from Ukraine’s Western allies.
Although Russian troops are slowly advancing, they have yet to fully conquer the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, which Moscow lays claim to.
Last year, sources close to the Russian government told the Moscow Times that the Kremlin was dragging out negotiations on purpose to consolidate battlefield gains and diplomats were playing for time while soldiers advanced.
“It’s a war of attrition. And right now, Russia is not winning this war,” Schlegel said.
“The Ukrainians gained the upper hand in the production of drones [and] deep strike capabilities that they didn’t have a year ago, which allowed them to compromise Russian oil exports. They have kept the interception rate of drones and cruise missiles very high despite the Russians more than doubling the numbers of drones and cruise missiles that they can send in the course of a year.”
The Russians, however, can adapt and overcome using their superior manpower.
“And that’s why they want to play for time. And simulating diplomacy is a good way of doing that,” Schlegel explained. “There is no movement in Moscow’s demands. There is no movement in Ukraine’s war objectives. A new element that was introduced for the May holidays is that Russia now signals that they want to involve Europe in some way in these negotiations.”
Earlier in May, European Council President Antonio Costa said the European Union was willing to negotiate with the Kremlin as well although he later clarified his remarks. It was not yet the “right moment”, he said, and the EU does not wish to disrupt Trump’s efforts.
Putin has suggested former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder represent the EU in any talks, a proposition met with scepticism in Brussels.
“Schroeder has been a high-level lobbyist for Russian state-owned companies. So it’s clear why Putin wants him to be the person so that actually, you know, he would be sitting on both sides of the table,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said.
“Moscow is generally open to negotiations. The Russian leadership has repeatedly stated this,” Alexey Nechaev of the Moscow-based Digoria Expert Club, told Al Jazeera. “However, the problem is that, so far, European politicians’ statements about dialogue have been accompanied by actions that are directly contrary: expanding military support for Ukraine, developing joint defence production, creating new military-political mechanisms in Northern Europe and strengthening NATO infrastructure on Russia’s borders. This is precisely why Russia is currently cautious about such initiatives. The main question is whether European countries are ready to discuss the root causes of the crisis and Russia’s fundamental security interests. If politicians in Europe emerge who are willing to engage in such a meaningful conversation, Moscow will likely reciprocate.”
While the EU’s position remains strongly pro-Ukrainian for now – especially after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, widely considered sympathetic to Russia, recently was voted out of office – Schlegel noted that may change after forthcoming elections, presenting another reason for Moscow to drag out negotiations.
“If next year the National Rally wins the [French] elections, we don’t know what this is going to mean for European support to Ukraine, but it’s certainly not going to get better,” he said.
“You’ve got Reform breathing down the neck of Labour in the United Kingdom. You’ve got the AfD polling as the strongest party in Germany. … And if Putin manages to play for time long enough, then there might still be a chance for him to influence European politics in such a way that Ukraine ends up with a lot less assistance.”
But the passage of time may be more favourable to Ukraine as well as Kyiv intensifies strikes on Russian equipment, infrastructure and supply lines.
The Ukrainians “have got a lot more leverage now than they had a year ago when Trump came into office and told them they had no cards”, Schlegel said.
“So we’re getting closer to a situation where Ukraine might be actually able to talk to Russia on Ukraine’s terms, but we’re still not anywhere close to any of the sides collapsing, and that’s going to be the moment when talks start in earnest.”
Nevertheless, observers such as Ilya Budraitskis, a Russian social scientist at the University of California in Berkeley, believe the Russian leadership is averse to any serious concessions at this stage. Budraitskis told Al Jazeera that Putin must fulfil the goals he set at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“And if none of these goals are achieved, he will look weak and defeated,” he said. “It’s important for him to demonstrate at least one of these targets has been achieved, and to realise this, he is prepared to sacrifice tens of thousands more Russian soldiers.”
But Budraitskis made a distinction between the interests of Putin’s government and Russia as a whole, which has suffered from sanctions, Ukrainian counterattacks and other disruptions to everyday life. If the interests of Russia’s population and international security could be decoupled from those of Putin, he argue
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